Construction of the Gravity Model of Tourism Demand on the Basis of the System Theory

This paper, based on the gravity model of tourism demand, studies the factors to the travel to the neighbor areas with the example of Hong Kong tourists to Macau, analyzing the drawing forces such as promotion activities of Macau’s Special Administrative Region government and the tourism industry, consumptions in Macau, especial events, and Macau’s tourism destination attractiveness, and the push powers such as Hong Kong’s GDP and the changes in Macau tourist market. On this basis, this paper revises the gravity model of tourism demand by re-considering the important factors affecting the tourist flow. The introduction of the explanatory variables of market structure makes the model closer to the reality. Moreover, by adding the space scale to the time sequence forecasting, this model analyzes the tourist flow from the whole perspective of time and space.